Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Tunisia
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Nigeria
  • Senegal
  • Burkina Faso
  • Ethiopia

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $719,714$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{683,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(683,789.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $19,111$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,538.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,538.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,949$ on 2020-10-28

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,548$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13,600.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 202.6)}}\) (asimptote \(13,600.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{265.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 247.7)}}\) (asimptote \(265.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $753$ on 2020-10-28

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,874$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{76,175.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 189.8)}}\) (asimptote \(76,175.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $823$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,043.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 180.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,043.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,089$ on 2020-10-28

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $54,278$ on 2020-10-28

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,153$ on 2020-10-28

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,093$ on 2020-10-28

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $207,718$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{450,661.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 232.1)}}\) (asimptote \(450,661.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,506$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,306.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 214.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,306.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,621$ on 2020-10-28

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,555$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,357.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,357.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 58.9)}}\) (asimptote \(60.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-10-28

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $107,030$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{102,529.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(102,529.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,234$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,959.2}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,959.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,622$ on 2020-10-28

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,083$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,221.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 108.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,221.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.4)}}\) (asimptote \(85.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36$ on 2020-10-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Nigeria recovered 86%
Senegal recovered 84%
Burkina Faso recovered 69%
Cabo Verde recovered 34%
Ethiopia recovered 4%

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,371$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{61,089.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.6)}}\) (asimptote \(61,089.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,139$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,125.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,125.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,137$ on 2020-10-28

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,582$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,022.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,022.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $322$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.8)}}\) (asimptote \(324.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $695$ on 2020-10-28

Burkina Faso⮸

Population $20,903,273$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,466$ on 2020-10-28

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{55.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 23.5)}}\) (asimptote \(55.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $218$ on 2020-10-28

Ethiopia⮸

Population $114,963,588$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,820$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,648.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 131.7)}}\) (asimptote \(96,648.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,451$ on 2020-10-28

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,460.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 88.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,460.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,483$ on 2020-10-28